I Told You So

Here we are, three games into the 2010 Major League Baseball season. The Boston Red Sox just wrapped up their opening three-game series against the New York Yankees.

They won only one of the three games.

During the offseason, the Red Sox did not sign power hitter, Jason Bay. Instead they signed Marco Scutaro (SS), Mike Cameron (CF), Adrian Beltre (3B), and John Lackey (P). Given the people the new fielders were replacing hit about the same or better than their replacements, the offensive capability appears to have been downgraded somewhat. However, defensively, the team has improved. With the addition of another top-of-the-rotation pitcher in John Lackey, the Red Sox moved in the direction of strong pitching and strong defense to win games. GM Theo Epstein even stated that was their goal as they salivate over new defensive stats like UZR.

It's not working so far.

The Red Sox won the first game with offense, 9-7 - it certainly wasn't pitching holding the Yankees' run count down.

Pitching and defense lost the next two games.

At their current trend, the Red Sox will win only 54 games this year. Yes, I know it's a small sample size from which nothing of significance can be derived. If they win their next game against the Royals, then the trend changes to the Sox winning 81 games this year. That's the skewing of statistics with too small sample sizes. However, one can still make that statement with accuracy at this time.

So even though the season willl eventually even out the stats, probably in ways that show the Red Sox heading to 90+ wins for the season, I'm going to use the small sample size to say one thing:

I told you so!

Scutaro Signing

I found this post on Boston.com and thought it funny. So I'm reposting it here:

redroverredrover wrote: Yikes. The guy had one good year and now he's our starting SS? Sounds like the next Julio Lugo to me. However, I'm glad we've got another player to add to the list of silliest Red Sox names, joining the likes of:

Heathcliff Slocumb
Arquimedez Pozo
Coco Crisp
Izzy Alcantara
Nomar Garciaparra
Gar Finnvold

Please add to this list. I know I'm missing some gems.

2 Wins, 4 Losses

OK, so it's only 6 games into a 162-game season. That's fewer than 5% of the games played. It is a marathon as opposed to a sprint....

However!

The Boston Red Sox have not looked good at the start of the 2009 season.

Beckett pitched really well in the opener, but didn't seem as sharp in his game against the Angels. Lester and Dice-K were nothing to brag about, both having a lapse of acumen during an inning which cost them the game.
Brad Penny was OK. Tim Wakefield was standard Wakefield - he kept his outing to three runs.

From the bullpen, Okajima is off to a rough start. Masterson, who was terrific last year, is showing some cracks. Papelbon had a 37-pitch outing the other day, loading up the bases, but managing to get out of it.

On the offensive side, Ellsbury is still doing his darndest to prove he shouldn't lead off. Pedroia has been cold at the plate. Big Papi has turned into Big Floppy, and I wonder if we'll ever see the Manny-era Ortiz. I tend to think not. I think he got a lot of protection from Manny and now pitchers aren't as concerned about him any more.

Youkilis has been THE bright spot. He's hot hitting right now. J Bay has included a couple home runs to the mix. Lowell and JD Drew have had some contact, and Varitek has surprised with a couple long balls of his own.

Lowrie is continuing his non-hitting streak from last year.

While it's too early to make pronouncements on this team, I have to say that when Plan A failed in the off-season (acquiring Texiera), one could conceivably say that there's reason to be concerned. It remains to be seen if Plan B (loading up on pitching) will carry the team in ways that offense was supposed to. But if the first six games are any indicator, it looks to be a long season.

Early prognostications - Red Sox end up third in their division.

Subject to change, if they change.

Crisp to KC for Ramirez

Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox center fielder, has been traded to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.

Crisp was with the Red Sox for three seasons. He will be remembered for breaking his thumb his first year, the fight with Tampa Bay pitcher James Shields, his ten-pitch at bat in the playoffs this year which ended up producing a run. He will also be remembered for his hustle, his defensive skills and his professionalism, especially when informed he'd be sharing his position with Jacoby Ellsbury.

This is what Coco had to say about the trade.

"I know my agent had told me there was a possible trade in the works within this week, and all that waiting and anticipating to see if it even happens kind of keeps you on edge," said Crisp, who was in California and found out about the deal at 7 a.m. PT. "When I finally got the news that I was going to Kansas City, it was exciting."

"It was a learning experience, definitely," Crisp said of his time in Boston. "I had a lot of fun. It's been a great experience for me coming from a contending team like Cleveland to a team that was already in the mix playoff-wise. I've learned on the field and off the field. It's helped me grow.

"The one negative aspect that came out of the whole thing was that I was plagued by nagging injuries, primarily the whole time I was there, with the exception of a month here or a month there and toward the end of this season, when I was fully healed from my hand injury, which I hurt within the first five games of coming over to Boston. It was an up-and-down ride. Most of the time, I enjoyed myself over there, even though it was difficult."

Even facing the prospect of going to the perennial cellar-dwelling Royals, Crisp was positive, professional and good-natured.

Goodbye, Coco Crisp. Your name may sound like a breakfast cereal, but I will always think of you as a consummate baseball player.

You will be missed.

They've Got Spirit, but....

After an optional practice today, the Red Sox were upbeat according to an article by Adam Kilgore of Boston.com, the online arm of the Boston Globe.

"We've got nothing but baseball ahead of us," catcher Jason Varitek said. "Belief. It wasn't just '04, '07. We've been able to do it. It leaves an overriding belief. I believe. I believe that if we execute what we can do,we're going to present ourselves with a great chance to win."

Sure, the Red Sox have a chance to win. They've had three chances to win in their last three games.

But they didn't.

It doesn't matter what they believe because the Rays believe THEY can win. And WILL win.

Sort of negates each other, doesn't it?

The objective observer would look at the Red Sox and see too many problems for them to be able to pull off another 07 or 04. It would be a nice story.

If you can believe it.

****************************************

Tampa Bay Rays manager, Joe Maddon, adjusted his regular rotation to have Scott Kazmir start the next game against the Red Sox instead of James Shields.

I find this interesting because Kazmir was the only Rays pitcher the Sox were able to tee-off on. The Rays ended up winning Game 2 in extra innings but only after Kazmir was roughed up for five runs.

This rotation change will mean that Kazmir will go against Dice-K who won Boston's only victory in the series. I wonder if Maddon means for this series to go back to Tampa Bay, so they can celebrate on their home field.

I really do wonder that.

Really.

Win Bigger Than It Looked

The Tampa Bay Rays 9-1 win over the Sox last night was bigger than it looked.

First, the Rays got back their home field advantage with that win. If the Sox want to win the pennant, they will have to do it at the Trop.

Second, it made the ostensible Red Sox ace, Jon Lester, look very human, not so intimidating.

Third, it gave the Rays back the confidence they've had all year. They are now in 'surge' mode.

On the other side of the coin,

It made the ostensible Red Sox ace, Jon Lester, look very human. Besides Jon, who else is there? Dice-K? He manages to get it done but not without a lot of drama. Beckett is clearly no longer the ace, and this starting rotation doesn't look so very strong any more.

Can we quit with the Ellsbury as lead-off batter experiment and put Crisp in there instead? Coco has been hitting, and he's quite fast. Ellsbury has left the building for some reason, along with a few other batters like the once-feared Big Papi.

Speaking of which, it would appear that David Ortiz only got to the place he did in hitting because Manny batted behind him. Take Manny out of the equation and apparently Ortiz is only a nominal hitter.

I predicted to a local radio show that if the Sox win the ALCS, it will be in seven games.

I also predicted that if the Rays win it, it will be in five games.

Everything is on track to come true.

On one good note: the Phillies are now one game away from getting into the World Series. They have a 3-1 lead in the NLCS. I am rooting for them to go all the way.

Unless the Red Sox make it in, of course.

Sox Knox

So here we are, 1 day away from the trade deadline of July 31. Of course, trades can still take place after that date, but the players must clear waivers first before a trade goes through.

The Red Sox have some issues that need to be addressed. The bullpen could really use some competence and consistency beyond what it's been able to do this year. The catcher position has really gone downhill from an offensive standpoint - Jason Varitek is batting .215 at last look and Cash was never going to be another Pudge Fisk, though he handles Wakefield well. Jacoby Ellsbury has fallen off the map offensively. And there's always the everlasting saga of Manny being Manny.

At this point in the season, the Red Sox' hold on 2nd place in their division seems tenuous. They lost a three game series to the Yankees and have done so as well against the potent Angels. The Rays don't show any indications of rolling over and playing dead either.

The Yankees made a good deal and acquired Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from the Pirates. The Angels have traded for Mark Texiera from the Braves. They have both improved their teams with players in which it was rumored the Sox were interested.

And the Red Sox have done - nothing.

The "brilliance" of Theo Epstein seems to have been trumped this season. Maybe the Sox don't need to shore up any positions to make it to the post season - there's still a lot of baseball to play.

But as things stand right now, I'd say it's time for RSN to lower expectations.

He's Back!

Last night's game 6 of the American League Championship Series heralded the return of the postseason Curt Schilling. The good Curt Schilling, not his evil meltdown twin.

Curt pitched a great 7 innings. He looked a bit shaky in the second inning, giving up the homerun to Victor Martinez, who really has Curt's number. Then he ended up with runners on 1st and 3rd but managed to get three outs.

But after that he settled down and gave us vintage Schilling. It may be the last time we see Schilling pitch in a Red Sox uniform - hopefully there will be at least one more appearance, but it's tough to say.

By all indications of the season, Carmona and Sabathia should have been able to give the Sox fits. Perhaps it's postseason inexperience that got the best of them, but the back of the rotation, Westbrook and Byrd have been more effective in this series.

How about that J.D. Drew, eh? I said he should be pulled, but look at the way he came through - grand slam in the 1st and an RBI single later on. He was the spark of the offense last night.

Jacoby Ellsbury had a great first postseason game with an RBI and a run. There was a great hit by him that was foiled by an even greater catch from Sizemore. But Jacoby still made his presence known, and what a refreshing change from the plate struggles of Coco Crisp. Ellsbury looks ready for the bigs, and Coco has to be thinking he'll be traded by next season. It's sort of too bad, he has a wonderfully marketable name. It is Ellsbury's time, however, and Coco never really became what everyone expected of him.

Who is the dummy at Fox who keeps playing "Cleveland Rocks" by Ian Hunter? It's understandable when playing at the Jake - but at Fenway Park when the Indians are getting stomped, it becomes really ludicrous and more than annoying.

So this is going 7 games which is not something I foresaw. Based on past history, I'd have to say that Dice-K is going to stink it up again. The Tribe has figured out how to go deep in the pitch count with him which exponentially reduces his effectiveness.

He really needs to be on a short leash tonight. Beckett has stated he'll be available out of the bullpen. Lester will be as well, so perhaps disaster can be averted.

I really think Fox should start the games at 7:00. An 8:00 start really means no baseball until 8:30, and given that baseball is a slow game, it makes for late nights.

All predictions off for tonight. Go Sox!

Quick Hits

Josh Beckett's performance gives me goosebumps. He killed the Indians' momentum last night, or at least stifled it for the game. We'll see if it carries over Saturday.

The Cleveland drummer finally shut up last night - blessed quietness! Great pic of him at bostondirtdogs.com.

Since Schilling, Dice-K and Wakefield can't seem to go beyond 4-2/3 innings, here's a suggestion: In Saturday's game, have them pitch 3 innings each. Maybe we'll be able to see the good version of them, and they will win the game.

Joe Torre has decided not to accept the Yankees' offer: Good on ya, Joe!

Too many people get too incensed over Manny goofs and gaffes. I don't get it. A lot of money doesn't guarantee intelligence, glibness, or integrity. Get over the thought that it should.

Little Dusty finally had a break out night after struggling for the first four games. Now where is Ellsbury? And why is Coco still playing?

Maybe J.D. should get the rest of the series off.

Schilling is slotted to pitch Saturday. Boston needs ALDS (07) Schilling to show up for the game, not ALCS (07) Schilling. Of course, if ALCS (04) Schilling wants to make an appearance, I'm all for that.

They're coming home!

Abyssinia Red Sox

The ALCS is one game away from being finished.

Steady, reliable Josh Beckett will pitch Thursday night. Of all the starters, he has the best chance to win the game and bring it back home to Fenway.

Still, he could lose, and I wouldn't hold it against him. Throughout the entire season, he has been the true ace of the staff, the only 20 game winner in all of MLB. The Josh Beckett of 2007 is so far removed from the Josh Beckett of 2006 that it's like two totally different pitchers. If this season is any indicator, Josh has the stuff to end up in the HOF one day.

The 2007 Red Sox were ostensibly built for the postseason.

Of course, it takes the postseason to see just how far off the building went.

As it turns out, the starting rotation (with the exception of Beckett) hasn't lived up to expectation. Schilling has had flashes of brilliance, but nothing consistent. Matsuzaka looks more and more like a monumental waste of money ($100M). Tim Wakefield's contract is cheap and year to year, but his effectiveness just hasn't been there the second half of the season.

The bullpen has huge anchors in Okajima and Papelbon. Delcarmen has stepped it up this year, but still makes costly mistakes. Timlin has been fairly effective. He's long in years, though, and his days have to be numbered. Lefty specialist Lopez can't get lefties out. Journeyman workhorse Julian Tavares was left off the ALCS roster, which makes no sense. He was always a good innings eater and fairly effective in his own right. Kyle Snyder, well I don't have much good I can say about him.

Lowell and Youkilis have been great at the corners, but Youkilis' offense has been streaky. Lowell, on the other hand, has been a rock, both defensively and offensively. He would like to stay in Boston, but all indications are that unless he accepts a shorter contract, say three years, the Sox won't re-sign him. More's the pity. He is the man this year, and you can't ignore the intangibles he brings to the clubhouse (let alone the tangibles). Isn't that what they kept saying about Kevin Millar in 2004 - look at all the intangibles he brings, never mind the fact that he can't hit, run or field that well.

Dustin Pedroia has had a terrific season, but in the postseason he's looking exactly like what he is - a rookie. Yet, Francona keeps him at lead off - go figure. I thought the postseason was about winning, not waiting for someone to find their groove.

The shortstop position has been laughable. With the exception of some streaky hitting in September, Julio Lugo has been a disaster offensively. Alex Gonzales, a far better shortstop than Lugo, was replaced because it was thought Lugo would bring a little more pop from that position. Didn't happen.

Makes one long for the days of Renteria, doesn't it? Why exactly did they feel the need to get rid of him again?

Then again, why did they replace Cabrera with Renteria? The front office has some 'splaining to do.

Manny and Papi have had substandard years offensively (though, I daresay most hitters would love to have a Manny/Papi substandard year). Clutch hitting has fallen off a bit by them, but they still have the ability to worry an opposing pitcher. With Lowell in the five spot, it is a lineup to take seriously.

Then there's David Jonathan Drew, or J.D. Drew, for short. Another of the front office's less than brilliant machinations, and an incredibly expensive one at that. The irony there is that most of the analysts and pundits (armchair and professional) were naysaying the deal before it was even signed. And they have him signed for what... 4? 5 years? at $14M per year? If I was a cursing person, I'd let off a string right now.

Centerfielder Coco Crisp has been a spark defensively, but a disappointment at the plate as well.

Jason Varitek, team Captain and primary catcher, has fallen off offensively as well. He has been in the leagues for a long time - it's catching up to him.

So, with the exception of the 3-4-5 spots in the lineup, the team is batting around .225 in the postseason. Couple that with only one real effective starter, and I fail to see how this team was built for the postseason.

I hope Beckett wins his start Thursday. I hope the Red Sox are able to take it back home to Fenway.

For if they are going to die, where best to do it than at home?

Kudos to Cleveland for their tenacious play.

Game 1 Thoughts

I won't be doing this for every game, but game one of any series is a seminal game in that it has the ability to set the tone for the rest of the games.

If you are a Red Sox fan, you had to like what you saw last night. Not so much that they blew out the Tribe 10-3. And not so much that Beckett was still in form. But the plate discipline and patience were the key, the real reason behind their success.

The Red Sox have had a spotty year of offense - that's the perception, and it's a valid one. I think that they were one of the top teams in runs for the season - at one point they were 2nd or 3rd. But numbers of runs scored is less important than when they are scored. Eight runs in a game is a lot of runs, but if you lose 9-8, it's a moot point.

Of course, in the end, they had enough run support to own a 96-66 record and that's saying a lot, However, they didn't often live up to their offensive potential with Ortiz hurting a lot of the year and Manny having a subManny year. That allowed Mike Lowell and Dustin Pedroia to really shine. Even Lugo and Drew picked it up in September.

To be able to get the offensive machine to life like they did last night was huge. It sparked on all sorts of cylinders up and down the rotation. They worked the pitches, drew a lot of walks and took Sabathia out of his rhythm early, which is no mean feat in itself. If this offense shows up every night, I think the Red Sox are unstoppable with adequate pitching support.

Schilling pitches the next game, Dice-K after that and Wakefield after him. Curt pitched a gem against the Angels, and that's the Curt we hope to see tonight. His control was phenomenal, and he used a myriad of pitches to entice the batters to fail.

Dice-K still remains a question mark. I think Wakefield does too. Tim has been a stalwart of the rotation. Of late, though, he hasn't looked all that good, purportedly from recurring back problems. He does have postseason experience which is a plus, but I can't place a lot of confidence in him yet.

On the other hand, Carmona and Byrd were terrific against the Yankees and should be treated with the utmost respect.

So here we go, off to the races. The Red Sox took game one, and I expected that based on Beckett alone. We'll see how the rest of the series goes. I don't see the Sox steamrolling the Indians, but it could happen.

Or it could go the other way. Tonight may be pivotal.

ALCS is Set

The Indians did away with the Yankees last night, which cheered me greatly. That means they will face the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series, a best of seven format with the first two games being played at Fenway Park because the Red Sox had a 5-2 winning season over the Indians.

The Indians concern me. They are popping on all cylinders right now. This is not to say that the Red Sox aren't, but as per my previous post, I don't think the Angels were a really good test for them.

Sabathia and Carmona are the two aces of the Indians' staff with Paul Byrd looking very good last night. The Red Sox Josh Beckett is a confidence instiller, and Curt Schilling can mix it up with the best of them, even at 41. It looked as if he finally figured out how not to be a power pitcher the other night, and he worked his repertoire quite well.

But Matsuzaka is still something of a bother. Though he didn't do badly against the Angels, it wasn't a stellar performance. There has to be an adjustment period for him. To be honest, though, I wonder if the Red Sox really got their money's worth. I guess we won't really know until next season or beyond, maybe? He is needed now, and he is needed to revert back to the MVP of the World Baseball Classic form that he displayed before.

There are many on talk radio who are saying that the Red Sox needed to go through the Yankees in order to validate their postseason success. That is because the Yankees had a winning record over the Sox during the season.

I say that's a bunch of hogwash for a couple reasons.

1. The Sox and Yankees aren't the only teams in their leagues or division. Both teams have to validate their standings by defeating everyone, more than losing to them.

2. The Sox, by virtue of clinching the division title, already validated their postseason standings.

3. If the Sox beat Cleveland, then will they not have defeated the Yankees by proxy?

Any team can get hot for a spell, and any team can cool down. That's why you have the Royals beating the Yankees some times. Or the Devil Rays beating the Sox some times. And so on.

The postseason is really all about who is hot and who is not for that stretch of time.

Predictions? Too early to tell. The Indians are clicking, and they will be the real postseason test for the Sox. If I had to guess, I'd say Cleveland in five.

Make that six.

Or seven.

Or something.

No sweep, though.

Here's to October.

OK, so that didn't work

The Yankees ended up winning game 3 of their series against Cleveland.

But that may not be such a bad thing. If the teams can string this out the full five games, then who will be more rested when going into the ALCS? The Sox or their opponent. There are some that think a layer of rust may develop over the next 4 days because the ALCS doesn't start til Friday, but, really, isn't that what practice is all about?

Speaking of winning the ALDS, I see the pictures of the Red Sox squirting champagne over each other and the only thing I can think is - act like you been here before boys.

Not that I'm unhappy to see the Sox in the postseason, but is it really necessary to have a champagne party every three games? At least Papelbon wasn't dancing around with a beer box on his head this time.

Seriously, the celebration when they clinched the division title was understood. And they did a fantastic job against the Angels. But I'm thinking that New York or Cleveland would have done just as well. The Angels, for whatever reason, injuries and all, were in a downtrend while the Sox were in an uptrend.

Well, at least the Sox have 4 days to wash the champagne out of their ears and eyes before they face a new (old?) opponent in their quest for the AL Pennant.

Luck to you and yours.

Congratulations Red Sox

The Red Sox trounced the Angels convincingly with pitching, timely hitting and great defense. Granted the Angels were without the services of Gary Matthews and Garret Anderson (third game), and Vlad Guerrero wasn't up to snuff - in other words, injuries took their toll. Even so, it's not so much what the Angels didn't do, but what the Sox did that was impressive.

Beckett threw a complete game shutout in game one. Manny got his first ever walk-off homerun in post season in game two, and Schilling worked the plate like the old pro he is. It was all very fascinating to watch and hopefully it bodes well for the ALCS.

The NLCS has already been settled. It will be between Colorado and Arizona. Both teams swept their rivals, Philadelphia and Chicago which really has to nettle Major League Baseball. Two major market teams swept out of contention. Gotta wonder what it does for ratings.

As of this writing, Cleveland is two runs ahead of the Yankees in their game three being played at Yankee Stadium. Steinbrenner has stated that if the Yankees lose, Torre's head will be on the block. It's a shame really. I like Torre, think he's a good manager.

I'd like to see the Sox play Cleveland in the ALCS only if for no other reason than I'm sick of seeing the Yankees. Go Cleveland!!

But as per my last post, I predict the Yankees will win tonight. ;-)

Got it?

Since the Prediction....

When I predicted that the Red Sox would cede the division to the Yankees, they were 3-1/2 games ahead of New York. Now they are only 1-1/2 games ahead with series coming up against Tampa Bay, Oakland and Minnesota to end the season.

The Yankees, on the other hand, just swept Baltimore and will face Toronto, Tampa Bay and the Orioles one last time again before October.

With a non-existent offense and a bullpen in disarray, I still think it's a safe bet to reiterate my prediction.

So now, the Red Sox have HAVE to make sure they don't give up the wild card.

Here's to seeing you on the other side.

My Prediction

Not one to prognosticate (yeah, right!), I have decided to put my prediction in print (sort of) here with regards to the American League East pennant race.

Here is what I think.

Ready?

Really Ready?

OK... let's do it.

I think the Red Sox will cede first place to the Yankees in September. Their offense (the Red Sox) is inconsistent, and except for the first four spots in the order, practically nonexistent. The Yankees, on the other hand, have been productive all the way down through their batting order.

So, the Sox will make it into the playoffs as a wild card team, but not as a division winner.

That's my prediction.

Let's see what happens.