I Told You So

Here we are, three games into the 2010 Major League Baseball season. The Boston Red Sox just wrapped up their opening three-game series against the New York Yankees.

They won only one of the three games.

During the offseason, the Red Sox did not sign power hitter, Jason Bay. Instead they signed Marco Scutaro (SS), Mike Cameron (CF), Adrian Beltre (3B), and John Lackey (P). Given the people the new fielders were replacing hit about the same or better than their replacements, the offensive capability appears to have been downgraded somewhat. However, defensively, the team has improved. With the addition of another top-of-the-rotation pitcher in John Lackey, the Red Sox moved in the direction of strong pitching and strong defense to win games. GM Theo Epstein even stated that was their goal as they salivate over new defensive stats like UZR.

It's not working so far.

The Red Sox won the first game with offense, 9-7 - it certainly wasn't pitching holding the Yankees' run count down.

Pitching and defense lost the next two games.

At their current trend, the Red Sox will win only 54 games this year. Yes, I know it's a small sample size from which nothing of significance can be derived. If they win their next game against the Royals, then the trend changes to the Sox winning 81 games this year. That's the skewing of statistics with too small sample sizes. However, one can still make that statement with accuracy at this time.

So even though the season willl eventually even out the stats, probably in ways that show the Red Sox heading to 90+ wins for the season, I'm going to use the small sample size to say one thing:

I told you so!